The impact of price insulation on world wheat markets during COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis

This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.

Evolution of oilseed sector in Romania - an analysis from the perspective of effects produced by the COVID-19 pandemic

Romania ranks first in the European Union for the production of sunflower seeds, third for the production of soybeans and seventh for the production of rapeseed. The paper aims to analyse the effects produced by the COVID-19 pandemic on the evolution of the oilseed sector in Romania. Thus, the following indicators were analysed: evolution of areas under oilseeds, total oilseed production and average yields, as well as the volatility of selling prices for oilseeds. The results of the study reveal that Romania has been the largest producer of sunflower seeds in the European Union. The average yields in sunflower, soybeans and rapeseed have shown great variations in the analysed period. According to Eurostat data, it can be noticed that although Romania is the third large producer of oilseeds in the EU, the average yields continue to be low compared to those from other large EU producers. Yields are also among the most volatile in the EU. The selling prices for soybeans showed a higher increase in the year 2020 than in 2019 in Romania, compared to the increase in the average selling prices of the EU-27 (+9.89%). The selling prices for rapeseed also had a higher increase in 2020 than in 2019 in Romania, compared to the increase in the average selling prices of the EU-27 (+2.31%).

Changes in the production and foreign trade of honey in Poland vis-a-vis the European Union and the world market

The aim of the article is to show the development of the volume and value of natural honey production, its import and export, and prices in Poland against the background of the situation in other countries in the European Union in the years 2000-2020 and as part of market changes globally. The study used the source of information from the FAOSTAT 2022 database. The production of honey in Poland, in other EU countries and around the world was characterized by an upward trend in the analyzed period. The biggest problem is China, which supplies the market with every fourth kilogram of honey product, while the EU accounts for about 13%. In the top thirty producers of natural honey, there are 11 European countries, including 9 from the EU - Poland is in fourth position. Self sufficiency in terms of honey is 60%, which is why the turnover in foreign trade of honey is dynamically increasing in terms of quantity and value. Overall, the honey trade balance in the EU was negative. The structure of honey exports and imports from and to the EU has changed, which is the result of random factors, i.e. the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and various economic, demographic, social and environmental factors.

Forecast of beef production for Brazilian market between 2021 and 2022

Cattle is one of the main items in the Brazilian productive guideline and an important export product. During the covid-19 pandemic, the price of beef occupied a prominent position in agricultural sector analyzes due to the prices increases. The objective of this research is to observe the national production behavior, exports, and domestic supply. Therefore, a domestic supply forecast was made for January 2021 to December 2022 (24 months). Based on the results obtained, it was found that the beefs supply available to the Brazilian market will not present an expressive upward behavior that compensates the evolution in beef export to international markets. Thus, a shift in the price of beef in the domestic market to higher levels may be observed.

Effect of coronavirus (COVID-19) on production of spices and its economy in Bangladesh

Coronavirus was detected in Bangladesh first time on March 8, 2020 officially. But Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), first reported in December 2019 from Wuhan in China, had reached the stage of a pandemic. This study was conducted to know the effects of spices against Covid-19 disease, impact of Covid-19 on agro-economy of spices crop and point out of mitigating of spices problem in Bangladesh. Major production of spices was severely affected, causing raw material shortages to the spice production of Bangladesh. Major for spices crop problem were shortages caused by the migration of the workforce due to lockdown. Continuing operation on the industry floor, in the midst of social distancing, and ensuring safety of the spices production, was also a major issue. Although the entire sectors were hit by the economic disruptions, the small-scale spice producers and processors most severely affected. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the prolonged lockdown have made thousands of farmers, labours and traders feel the pinch of a falling spices yield and sale. Increased production cost of onion, chilli, garlic, ginger, turmeric, coriander and black cumin due to Covid-19 situation over normal situation were 10.33, 9.54, 9.04, 11.46, 9.58, 6.21 and 7.21%, respectively. Market price of onion, chilli, garlic, ginger, turmeric, coriander and black cumin were also increased 5.00, 3.90, 1.39, 3.13, 1.40, 1.25 and 2.67 times, respectively, due to the influence of Covid-19.

International markets impact on wheat prices in the republic of North Macedonia

The production of wheat, as one of the elementary and strategic nutrition crops, in North Macedonia is insufficient and cannot meet the national demands, which results with negative trade balance with import of 74,937 tons of wheat valued at 17.9 million EUR. The main goal of this paper is to analyse the influence of international markets on wheat prices in the Republic of North Macedonia. Data on the purchase price of wheat have been analysed using statistical methods and models from December 2009 to December 2021. A total of 145 monthly time series with data on the purchase price of wheat for Macedonia, the EU, Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia have been analysed and compared. The Pearson correlation coefficient shows a relatively high relationship and mutual dependence of purchase prices in Macedonia, compared to prices in the EU, Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia (over 65%). The purchase prices of wheat in Macedonia have the highest relationship and mutual dependence with the price movement in Serbia (0.78), and the lowest with the price movement in the EU (0.66). The estimated lag length of the autoregressive process (AIC, BIC, FPE and HQIC tests), on average shows 2 lags (months) later time reaction of the wheat prices in Macedonia with the comparison countries countries. The forecasting model (Granger causality test) shows that time series of wheat prices can be convenient for forecasting wheat prices in Macedonia. As of October 2021, the model clearly shows the impact of food economic crisis and unexpected, immediate rise of wheat prices as result of the post Covid-19 and Ukraine war crisis. This research and analysis model can provide significant information for the wheat price trends, forecasting and markets shock, as management and decision-making tools for producers, traders and processors, but also for the policy makers.

Impact of the economic crisis on the apple production price in the republic of North Macedonia

Apple production has the greatest significance among all types of fruit crops in Macedonia, sharing 56% of the total fruit production. Due to the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, the prices of agricultural inputs have increased greatly. To that end, the main goal of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the global economic crisis on the apple production price. The production costs calculation is based on calculation of variable and fixed costs of apple production for 2020 and 2021 as reference years and 2022 as the year when the production price change is considered. Data for the normative calculation and production price for 2020 and 2021 are obtained based on the expert knowledge and confirmed with the semi-structured interview with 3 farmers and 2 apple producing companies. Based on this normative calculation and market prices for inputs in 2020, 2021 and 2022 collected from the 10 input suppliers, AMIS and SSO, the apple production price is calculated. The results show that the economic crisis has a large negative economic impact on apple production, as the estimated full production price of apples in 2022 ha increased by 37% compared with that of 2020 & 2021.

Impact of the economic reform policy and COVID 19 on the seasonality of the most important Egyptian agricultural exports and imports

The research mainly aimed to study the impact of the economic reform policy and the Corona pandemic and seasonal factors on the prices of the most important Egyptian agricultural exports and imports. The most important results were the following: - By studying the trend analysis of the monthly average of the prices of the most important exported and imported commodities, it shows the real price increase over time per month for the exports of 17 commodities represented as "olive oil, dried fruits, Rumi cheese, aromatic oils and resins, dried onions, processed cheese, dried vegetables, white cheese, juices." Its foundations are oily seeds and fruits, onions and garlic, citrus fruits, preserved strawberries, frozen artichokes, processed potatoes, frozen vegetables, and potatoes. - Also found was that the economic reform policy had a statistically significant effect on the average real price of the exports of the 17 commodities under study, as well as the imports of meat, oils, sugar, beans, and wheat, in addition to the imports of the most important production requirements studied, such as seeds, pesticides, disinfectants, and fertilizers. that during the study period. - By studying the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the real monthly prices of exports and imports of the commodities under study, it was found that the average monthly price decreased in real prices for all commodities under study, except for oils and aromatic resins, but the statistical significance of the rates of decrease during the study period did not prove.

Aggregating Prophet and Seasonal Trend Decomposition for Time Series Forecasting of Italian Electricity Spot Prices

The cost of electricity and gas has a direct influence on the everyday routines of people who rely on these resources to keep their businesses running. However, the value of electricity is strongly related to spot market prices, and the arrival of winter and increased energy use owing to the demand for heating can lead to an increase in energy prices. Approaches to forecasting energy costs have been used in recent years;however, existing models are not yet robust enough due to competition, seasonal changes, and other variables. More effective modeling and forecasting approaches are required to assist investors in planning their bidding strategies and regulators in ensuring the security and stability of energy markets. In the literature, there is considerable interest in building better pricing modeling and forecasting frameworks to meet these difficulties. In this context, this work proposes combining seasonal and trend decomposition utilizing LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) and Facebook Prophet methodologies to perform a more accurate and resilient time series analysis of Italian electricity spot prices. This can assist in enhancing projections and better understanding the variables driving the data, while also including additional information such as holidays and special events. The combination of approaches improves forecast accuracy while lowering the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) performance metric by 18% compared to the baseline model.

COVID-19, living income differential and decline in income of cocoa producers in C..te d'Ivoire. (Agriculture et syst..mes alimentaires face .. la Covid-19.) [French]

Cocoa farmers in C..te d'Ivoire are mostly below the poverty line. In September 2019, the Ivorian and Ghanaian governments imposed the Living Income Differential (LID) on private companies, an additional $ 400 per ton compared to the international market price, passed on to the producer price (farm gate price). At the beginning of 2020, the Covid-19 arose. In this dual context, how did prices change? Has the hope of increased income been achieved? Three approaches are used: (a) monitoring of the selling price of cocoa beans and monitoring of the price of purchased cocoa farming inputs and basic necessities for households;(b) monthly monitoring of farm gate cocoa price in 2020-2021;(c) an analysis of national production data from C..te d'Ivoire and Ghana, the world price, variations in the demand for beans by the grinding industry, and the price paid to producers, over 20 years. The first result is a very temporary and limited rise in the farm gate price of cocoa at the end of 2020, then its fall in 2021 as the price of inputs and basic necessities soar. The 2021-2022 campaign is even more harmful with a tightening of the price scissor. It is therefore the failure of the LID, but the role of Covid-19 in this failure is very nuanced with regard to the declarations of the State and the multinationals. The drop in prices and the loss of income for cocoa farmers in 2020-2022 rather fits into the economic theory of games. Without control of their supply, an agreement between two companies or countries cannot work. The failure is part of a largely endogenous structural change: demographic growth, policies to encourage migration and deforestation, opacity of the sector and finally continued growth of the supply of cocoa from C..te d'Ivoire on the international market.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on vertical price transmission in the U.S. fresh banana market

The U.S. imports about two billion dollars of fresh bananas, accounting for over 99 percent of domestic banana consumption annually. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the fresh banana supply chain and caused unexpected price movements along the marketing channel. This research investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on price adjustments in the U.S. fresh banana market. A Vector Error Correction (VEC) model was employed to evaluate the speeds of price adjustments along the U.S. banana marketing channel at the import and retail levels, and historical decomposition graphs were used to investigate the magnitude of price adjustments caused by the COVID-19 shock. The results show that the deviation from the long-run equilibrium caused by the shock was corrected faster for the import prices than retail prices. Hence, the speeds of price adjustments were asymmetric in the period of the COVID-19 shock. Additionally, the magnitudes of price changes caused by the pandemic shock were different, leading to increased price margins. These results point to the inefficiency of the banana marketing channel with welfare, policy, and agribusiness implications.

Testing Market Efficiency During Covid-19 Pandemic: A Study of Select Global Indices

The Covid-19 crisis provided an opportunity to generate excess returns as stocks were trading below their fair value. The first infection case was reported in November 2019, and a sharp fall in global markets was witnessed soon thereafter. Though markets gradually recovered from their respective lows, its impact was felt across major parts of the globe till early 2021. The paper analyzes the efficiency of 44 world major stock exchanges (Asia-Pacific-17, Europe-16, America-6 and Africa-5) for 15 months (November 2019 to January 2021), and tests whether markets move randomly or whether they are adaptive in nature, i.e., whether Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) or Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) holds good in such conditions. The results of Hurst exponent and Variance Test (VT) ratio prove that markets are adaptive.

Sugar price behavior and price relationships at the market level before and during COVID-19 pandemic

An efficient commodity market creates a price relationship between two or more markets. This study provides an overview of the behavior of premium granulated sugar prices and the price relationship between market levels. Time series data for the period January 2018-March 2022, are used in this study. Graphical trend analysis;and cointegration analysis with Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach to find research objectives. The research found that the price behavior of premium quality granulated sugar in the traditional market and the modern market is more dynamic than the price at the wholesaler level. The highest price spike occurred in the early period of covid-19, and several months later it returned to stability. Price behavior in traditional markets does not follow movements at other market levels simultaneously but takes some time to reach equilibrium. There is a long-term rionship (cointegration) between prices at the level of traditional markets, modern markets, and wholesalers, which contribute to the balance in the market. Market players need to take a strategic role in maintaining price balance at every level of the market in order to create an efficient and fair market.

The impacts of price insulation on world wheat markets during the 2022 food price crisis. (Special section on agricultural and food prices in times of crises.)

This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using error-correction models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.

COVID-19 and China commodity price jump behavior: An information spillover and wavelet coherency analysis.

Jumps in commodity prices can make asset risk management challenging. This study explores the influence feature of the COVID-19 epidemic on China's commodity price jumps, using 5-min intraday high-frequency futures data of three China's commodity markets (energy, chemical, and metal) from January 23, 2020 to June 10, 2022. We find that firstly the information spillover from the COVID-19 spread situation to China's energy price jumps is relatively weak, and the COVID-19 epidemic shows the most substantial jump information spillover pattern to China's chemical price. The information spillover pattern is time-varying across the COVID-19 spread situation phase. Secondly, there are co-movement patterns between China's commodity price and China/global COVID-19 confirmed cases. This co-movement feature mainly occurs at the medium- or long-run time scales, and varies across commodities. Thirdly, the demand elasticity for China's commodities and its dependence on imports and exports are the main factors influencing the sensitivity of its price jumps to the COVID-19 outbreak.

The Trilogy of the Chinese Apple Futures Market: Price Discovery, Risk-Hedging and Cointegration

The agricultural futures market plays an extremely important role in price discovery, hedging risks, integrating agricultural markets and promoting agricultural economic growth. China is the largest apple producer and consumer in the world. In 2017, Chinese apple futures were listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) as the first fruit futures contract globally. This paper aims to study the efficiency of the apple futures market by using the Wild Bootstrapping Variance Ratio model to estimate the price discovery function, the ARIMA-GARCH model to estimate the risk-hedging function, and the ARDL-ECM model to estimate the cointegration relationship of the futures and spot market. Experimental results firstly demonstrate that the apple futures market conforms to the weak-form efficiency, which indicates that it is efficient in price discovery. Secondly, the apple futures market is not of semi-strong efficiency because it generated abnormal profit margins amid China–US trade friction, climate disaster, and COVID-19;in terms of the degree of impact, the COVID-19 pandemic had the greatest impact, followed by the rainstorm disaster and trade friction. Thirdly, the results of this study indicate that the cointegration relationships exist between the futures market and the spot markets of the main producing areas. This paper is not only conducive to sustainable development of the global fresh or fruit futures market, but also has potential and practical importance for China in developing the agricultural futures market, strengthening market risk management and promoting market circulation.

Optimal Purchasing Decisions with Supplier Default in Portfolio Procurement

As global public health events and regional conflicts have greater influence on supply chains nowadays, supplier default in procurement becomes more and more common in practice. However, there is less research on portfolio procurement purchasing decisions in the case of fixed-term contract supplier default. This paper focuses on the optimal purchasing decision of buyers by using a combination of fixed-term contracts and spot transactions, which is a beneficial extension of the classical newsvendor model. When supplier default is not considered, the optimal purchase quantity in the fixed-term contract is first obtained, which maximizes the buyer’s expected profits. Research shows that supplier default has an important impact on the optimal purchasing decision making in portfolio procurement. The optimal purchase quantity of the buyer in the fixed-term contract decreases with the increase in the default rate of the contract supplier, which implies that the default from the contract supplier inhibits a larger purchase quantity in the fixed-term contract. In addition, it is proved that the buyer’s expected profits from portfolio procurement increases with the decrease in the contract supplier’s default rate. Finally, numerical experiments and sensitivity analysis are conducted to prove the result, and some management opinions on the optimal decision-making in portfolio procurement with fixed-term contracts and spot transactions are put forward.

Current Situation and Optimization Countermeasures of Cotton Subsidy in China Based on WTO Rules

Cotton plays an important role in China’s agricultural production structure and international trade;therefore, China has implemented a variety of cotton subsidy policies. Since China joined the WTO in 2001, WTO rules have become substantive constraints on its agricultural subsidy policy. Therefore, in order to prevent appeal cases of China’s cotton subsidy, in this article, we investigate the current situation and optimization countermeasures with respect to China’s cotton subsidies based on WTO rules. According to calculation of the level of China’s cotton subsidy support under WTO rules, it currently exceeds 8.5% of the cotton production value. Secondly, we estimate the change in cotton subsidy effect when the support level of China’s cotton subsidy policy is directly reduced to 8.5%;the results show that such a reduction would have a considerable impact on the production scale. However, due to the constraints of the political and economic goals of cotton subsidies, the Chinese government can only “box shift” subsidies by changing the subsidy method and object in order to comply with WTO rules. Finally, from the perspective of how to use cotton subsidies to improve the efficiency of production factors, the Chinese government should focus on optimizing the cotton subsidy policy according to three aspects: improving the Amber Box subsidies, expanding the Green Box subsidies and increasing the Blue Box subsidies so as to maintain the existing level of cotton subsidy support.

Ricing management in milk production

Pricing management is part of farm management with the purpose of increasing profitability and competitiveness. It is based on the production cost and purchase price which difference affects to the financial result. The aim of this research is to identify milk price volatility at the Croatian and EU level, international trade, as well as to identify trends for the period from 2016 to 2020 and to simulate changes for the next period from 2021 to 2025. The analyzed data were taken from the Eurostat and processed using time and harmonized index. Milk production in the EU-27 for 2020 is 23 mil. tons of milk and averages 65 kilograms milk consumption per capita. The lowest average production price of milk in the analyzed period at the EU-27 level was in 2016 (28 per 100 kg of milk) and in following years it is up to 35 per 100 kg. The market situation reflects the consequence of the abolition of quotas in the dairy industry (2015) and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In period from 2021 to 2025, a slight growth and slowdown in milk production of 2.83% compared to 2020 and an increase in the average producer milk prices in 2025 by 9.6% compared to 2020 are projected. This research contributes to identifying the sources of difficulties in managing prices. The guidelines have been developed for more efficient price management in order to improve the competitiveness and market positioning.

Antitrust Decisions as a Sledgehammer?: A Descriptive Study on the Impact of Cartel Investigations on Stock Prices

Companies under investigation for anticompetitive behaviour in breach of the competition rules face heavy fines, high legal costs, loss of future profits and reputational damage. In addition, listed companies also seem to (temporarily) experience negative shocks in their stock market value. This article provides a descriptive analysis of the impact of the European Commission’s press release, announcing an antitrust investigation, on the stock market performance of the companies involved. Furthermore, we discuss the influence of the press release covering the Commission’s decision and accompanying fine. Reviewing four cases for each of these two moments, we conclude that an antitrust investigation or fine can be linked to a substantial negative shock to the stock market value of the companies concerned. While the drop is sizeable and thus clearly visible for almost all companies, the effect also seems to be relatively short-lived. Interestingly, the effects mostly seem more pronounced for the announcement of the investigation than for the fine, with some cases barely showing an effect of the latter. This could indicate that the stock market already accounts for the full effects around the time of the initial announcement. Keywords: antitrust;cartel investigation;impact assessment;stock market performance